The inflationary trends are at their peak once again and a latest report says that the prices of essential commodities have recorded a rise of up to 30 percent, which is a matter of serious concern. In this way, the over inflation on the weekly has also touched the same level year-on-year for the third week of the current month ending Nov. 24.

According to the data of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Inflation has risen 0.48pc week-on-week, compared to a 0.62pc increase as compared to the second week of November.  And what is more concerning is that this week-on-week increase has been triggered by a sudden rise in the prices of eggs and chicken due to the advent of cold weather. Prices of vegetables like onion and tomatoes too are sky-rocketing.

Overall, priaces of nineteen essential items have shown inflaitonaary trends. It may be recalled here that the short-term inflation as indicated by the Sensitive Price Indicator was registered at 28.67pc Year on Year basis (YoY). Just imagine, it has touched a record high level of unprecedented 45.5pc in Sept last. As a matter fact, the current year has witnessed decades-high inflationary trends in the wake of high prices in international commodity prices and huge devaluation of Pak currency against US dollar. Floods too contributed their bit to this trend as standing crops were damaged by biblical rains and subsequent floods. The situation was so alarming last month that the government had not other option than to remove duties on the import of some basic kitchen itemslike the onions and tomatoes from neighbouring countries i.e., Afghanistan and Iran. The high prices of power utilities like the electricity and POL products have also the other main factors as due to subsiding  of subsidies on electricity as a result  an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the inflationary trends came under pressure, fueling high commodities prices.

In this backdrop, the crisis of food shortage is going to worsen in the country. Already the prices of essential kitchen items like onion, tomatoes, potatoes and other vegetables are beyond reach of the common man.  Pakistan's current wheat production is projected to be less by more than thirty per cent for next year, posing a serious danger of further aggravating the food shortage issue in the country which is already reeling under the effects of the rupee's depreciation and inflation. We have been noticing a marked decrease in cultivation area, high prices of fertilizers, and the water issues in the country and now with the flash floods, the situation is totally out of control. Some months back the country was facing a drought-like situation and experts said that water issues are serious because our country either does not have enough water to meet the irrigation needs or is faced with the danger of flash floods like the current situation due to which our standing crops are facing the danger of flash floods due to heavy deluges of water from the over flowing rivers and dams.

As a matter of fact, now's time for the SBP to go a step further and after stabilizing the currency, also ensure other monetary steps which may halt the inflationary trends. Ensuring policies to uplift market situaiton as soon as possible is in the greater interest of the Pak economy. Otherwise, it will add to economic woes by adding to inflationary pressures and making life very tough for the producers as well as consumers.

On the one hand if the government remained unable to check inflationary trends, the masses will face a worst situation. It is good that the Govt has  paid heed to sectors like agriculture to become self-sufficient in food crops beside wheat, so that food imports can be overcome. But more steps are needed to check the situation. Though we never lived in hunky-dory times before, but after the biblical floods, majority of population seems to concerned about high food prices and shrinking sources of income. The fact that one in every five people in our country go to bed on an empty stomach is a grave  reminder of rife food shortage in Pakistan.

 The economic impacts and supply chain disruptions along with the novel pandemic have  only aggravated the situation.  Now the question is what should be done to control the food woes. The only viable solution to this never-ending despair lies in improving per acre yield, for which we need to focus on our agriculture sector which is the backbone of our economy. No doubts about that. There is also need for handling the what stocks in provinces as our country used to see artificial shortage of food items deliberated by the mafias by hoarding the major produce and creating a chaos like situation by not supply them in the market  with a view to increase prices of their produces.

Usually this is done by the middlemen mafia which needs to be tamed with introduction of string of strict measures. The fact that  annual CPI inflation has touched a record high of  26.6pc YoY in October as compared to a 49-year high of 27.3pc in August last when the country was lashed by rains and floods, is still fueling the inflationary trends and more increased is feared as the economy is on the down trend. Meanwhile, the shopkeepers and the middlemen mafia are also making life hell for the common man as they contribute their bit to high prices of essential items. What is needed is that the provincial governments in respective provinces should alert the district administration to come hard on profiteers and force them to sell commodities on fixed prices.

Published in The Daily National Courier, November, 28 2022

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