BEIJING: China’s population shrank last year for first time in more than six decades, official data showed Tuesday, as world’s most populous country faces looming demographic crisis. Nation of 1.4 billion has seen birth rates plunge to record lows as its workforce ages, in rapid decline that analysts warn could stymie economic growth and pile pressure on strained public coffers.

Mainland Chinese population stood at around 1,411,750,000 at end of 2022, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported, decrease of 850,000 from end of previous year. Number of births was 9.56 million, NBS said, while number of deaths stood at 10.41 million. Last time China’s population declined was in early 1960s, as country battled worst famine in its modern history, result of disastrous Mao Zedong agricultural policy known as Great Leap Forward. China ended its strict one-child policy imposed in 1980s owing to fears of overpopulation in 2016 and began allowing couples to have three children in 2021.

But that has failed to reverse demographic decline for country that has long relied on its vast workforce as driver of economic growth. “Population will likely trend down from here in coming years,” Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management said. “China cannot rely on demographic dividend as structural driver for economic growth,” he added. “Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth, which is driven by government policies.”  “Unemployment rate is so high, Covid destroyed everything, there’s nothing we can do. Next year we’ll have declining growth again.” 

Published in The Daily National Courier, January, 18 2023

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