A lot has been said and written about the coming budget. The Economic Survey will be presented on June 11 and the Budget 2024-25 on June 12.

This time, negotiations are ongoing for a new 4-year program of 6 billion dollars of IMF. The IMF wants to fulfill all its conditions through the budget i.e. the finance bill, which includes additional taxes in the upcoming budget, increase in electricity and gas prices, sales tax on petroleum products, elimination of subsidies, amendments in the pension scheme, development projects (PSDP), reduction in foreign exchange reserves, relaxation in imports, reduction in expenditure, bringing real estate, agriculture and retail sectors into the tax net, privatization of loss-making government institutions, current account deficit and current account deficit of electricity and gas sectors.

 The decrease of 35 percent in the health sector and 62 percent in the education sector in the funds allocated for the social sector by the federal government is alarming. The external sector, especially external debt repayments, will continue to put pressure on the foreign exchange reserves, to overcome which we will have to increase our remittances, exports and foreign investment. From July to March 2024, foreign investment of 1.3 billion dollars and remittances of 21 billion dollars came into the country, while exports were 23 billion dollars, which brought the foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank to 9 billion dollars and total reserves to 14 billion dollars. .FBR is expected to achieve a target of 9415 billion rupees in the year 2023-24, on the basis of which the target of revenue collection in the next financial year 2024-25 has been proposed to be 12900 billion rupees, for which the government has to spend 1500 billion rupees.

New taxes will be imposed in the real estate sector in which 3% on property worth Rs 5 crore, 4% on property worth Rs 7 crore and 7% on property worth more than Rs 10 crore will be collected from the property seller. Capital gains tax was exempted on sale of these properties after a certain period but now capital gains tax will be charged irrespective of the period. The burden of the present pension scheme of the federal government has become unbearable. 0The government wants to reduce its scope in the upcoming budget by banning multiple pensions and other amendments besides taxation. 15 to 20 percent increase in salaries is expected in this year's budget.

Due to the strict monetary policy of the State Bank, the rate of inflation, which reached 35%, has decreased in the last two years to 11.7% in May and in view of the reduction in inflation, the State Bank has reduced its discount rate by 2%, i.e. 20% percent but the business community wants to see it in single digits. Development Plans (PSDP) of any country help in accelerating the economic growth of that country and creating new job opportunities and the wheel of the economy moves faster but Unfortunately, the government does not have the capacity to complete development projects. In the current fiscal year 2023-24, 960 billion rupees were allocated in the budget, which was reduced to 746 billion rupees, out of which only 40 percent i.e. 379 billion rupees could be spent on development projects. This year the development budget has been proposed to be 1220 billion rupees, but considering the performance and financial resources of the government in the past years, the IMF has demanded a cut in the PSDP. The government has substantially controlled the current account deficit, which has come down from a record high of 8 percent to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024, while the fiscal deficit remained at 3 percent of GDP. Similarly, the trade deficit also decreased by 15% this year, which has decreased to 21.7 billion dollars from 25.6 billion dollars last year.

The government is taking steps for the Micro Economic Stability of the country's economy after which we can move towards rapid economic growth. A review of the country's GDP growth shows that our GDP is 5.8 percent in 2021, 4.7 percent in 2022, 0.21 percent in 2023, while the target is 2 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025. We need faster GDP growth for economic recovery. The reason for the improvement in the economic growth of Pakistan in this financial year is our agricultural sector, whose growth was 5 percent. Banks' agriculture credit also increased by 33.6 percent. Cotton harvest was 108%, rice 35%, wheat 6.7%, corn 5.6%, livestock and fisheries 4.3% while the performance of large-scale industries was slightly better. Pakistan's biggest problem is its local and external debt which has increased to 8100 billion rupees and its payment in federal tax revenue has increased from 51 to 81 percent which is a moment of concern. The people and the business community are expecting the government to reduce the prices of electricity, gas, sales and income tax in the upcoming budget and give them relief, but this does not seem possible in the current situation.Financial experts say that interest is consuming Pakistan at such a fast rate that now a large part of our budget goes to pay interest. In the financial year 2023-2024, 7300 billion rupees were allocated for interest, but it is being said that the interest payment will be more than 8300 billion rupees this year, while the estimate allocated for the payment of interest next year is around 9500 billion rupees.

Our debts (a large part of which is internal debt) have increased and are increasing so much that if no solution is found, Pakistan will not even be able to make its own budget if the entire budget is spent on interest payments. Pakistan's internal debt can be eliminated immediately, which will eliminate the burden of interest. Qant Sahib also wrote three articles in this regard in The News while he is also putting his proposal in front of everyone by going to different forums. Interestingly, despite legal powers to create money, the Pakistani state continues to borrow heavily from private banks to pay interest on old loans. It is a continuous process; The government borrows to pay interest, which increases the government's debt, and the interest payments result in an increase in bank deposits. We are experiencing inflation due to an increase in the money supply, and the burden of government debt on our children will continue to grow.