ADB forecast Pakistan’s energy investment from $62bn to $122bn till 2030
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ISLAMABAD: Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that Pakistan’s energy investment ranges from $ 62 billion to $ 155 billion till 2030.
According to ADB’s Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Energy Outlook for 2030 report, energy investment needs until 2030 vary significantly across three scenarios.
Power generation and energy efficiency sector need most significant investments owing to rapidly growing demand and low baseline efficiency. In all three scenarios, largest investments are needed for development of country’s hydropower capacity, ranging from $ 11 billion to $ 26 billion. Investment needs for wind and solar energy are expected to reach nearly $ 12 billion in business-as-usual scenario, $ 36 billion in government commitments scenario and $ 57 billion in green growth scenario, which illustrates country’s ambitious plans for harnessing its large renewable energy potential.
Furthermore, according to country’s nuclear power generation targets, investments for nuclear facility expansion and rehabilitation total nearly $ 12 billion in business-as-usual scenario, $ 21 billion in government commitments scenario and $ 31 billion in green growth scenario.
Generational rehabilitation and expansion are investment categories estimated to require largest share of total ranging from 60 percent to 75 percent, or $ 38 billion to $ 115 billion, varying across scenarios.
The second biggest category is energy efficiency measures on consumption side, requiring $ 12 billion in business-as-usual scenario, almost $ 21 billion in government commitment scenario and over $ 26 billion in green growth scenario.
With strong focus on generation over last several decades, T&D sectors suffered greatly from underinvestment. As a result, transmission losses in Pakistan are one of highest in region, with some distribution companies reaching losses of 38 percent. While policies, such as Transmission Line Policy, have been established to attract private investments, a centralised transmission plan considering load development in future is required to set long-term direction for network development and to establish realistic targets for reducing T&D losses and attracting investments.
Published in The Daily National Courier, December, 26 2022
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